Публікація на EUobserver

There’s a Ukrainian proverb which says “it’s not the one who strikes the blow who’s stronger, but the one who stands his ground after being hit”.
Ukraine, in defiance of Russia’s assault, is holding its ground on pro-EU reforms.

Donbas refugees in Ukraine: starting from scratch (Photo: Christopher Bobyn)
It’s doing so despite the defunct security promises of the Budapest Memorandum guarantors, the UK and the US, who pledged, in 1994, to uphold its territorial integrity in return for nuclear disarmament. It’s doing so despite meagre financial support from the West and the EU’s lack of strategic vision for eastern Europe.

Today, as in February last year, when Russian spetznaz seized the parliament in Crimea, Moscow remains in full control of escalation or de-escalation.

Russian soldiers play hide and seek with the international community. It’s “volunteers” come to Ukraine in tanks, its soldiers become “demobilised” the minute they cross the border.

Report after report confirms Russia’s undeclared war.

But the UN has not designated it as an aggressor. Instead, the UN secretary general went to Moscow’s 9 May military parade, which contained military units involved in anti-Ukraine operations.

Neither has Russia been designated as a “state sponsor of terrorism” despite its attacks on Ukrainian civilians, or in the aftermath of the MH17 shoot-down, which took the lives of nationals not involved in the conflict.

Instead, Western leaders make pretend Russian leader Vladimir Putin is a neutral observer to the “Minsk” ceasefire agreement.

This is what happens when your country – unlike its adversary – has no nuclear arms; no oil and gas; no UN Security Council veto; no massive propaganda machine.

Публікація на EUobserver

Once again in history, Ukraine has become the bloodiest place on the continent. Russian military aggression has already claimed 5,358 lives, according to the most recent UN report, and made around a million Ukrainians homeless.

Despite all the diplomatic efforts and concessions meant to appease Russia, there is no end to the bloodshed on the horizon.

The Minsk protocol – last year’s ceasefire accord – is dead.

The cause of death is clear: Russian aggression against Ukraine has bigger goals than the current territorial gains in Crimea and in the Donbas region in east Ukraine.

The failure of peace efforts does not come as a surprise. Since September, Russia has been pouring heavy modern weaponry into Donbas on a scale unprecedented in modern day military conflicts. It was clear that such a military buildup was not intended to respect the ceasefire.

For many long months, world leaders pretended to see no hard evidence of direct Russian aggression. The one valid reason for this was to leave the exit door open for Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

For the same reason, Ukraine has been fighting the “hybrid” war with a hybrid defence: it has restrained itself from announcing a state of war, even when parts of its territory were occupied, while conducting an “anti-terrorist” operation against Russia-controlled militants armed with tanks and rocket systems.

Putin, so far, does not want to make use of that exit door.